摆脱欧元区的恶性循环

萨拉曼卡—欧元区陷入了恶性循环,疲软的银行系统危害了主权国家的财政状况,而这反过来又危害银行系统的稳定。但是,在过去几年中,决策者的注意力基板上集中在减少银行对主权国家的影响上——比如成立泛欧洲监管当局和建立欧洲清算机制——而忽略了反方向的反馈。

尽管欧元区主权债务市场已经稳定下来,但银行持有本国主权债券的比例在最近几个月中大幅上升,一些国家甚至达到了净新增债务的一半以上。在西班牙和意大利,主权债券目前占银行总资产的10%左右。

风险在于,疲软债务国的主权债券市场所面临的任何意料之外的挑战——比如加泰罗尼亚的独立公投或葡萄牙和希腊援助计划的重新谈判——都会破坏银行偿债能力,并且破坏力常常会比前几次反馈循环更大。此外,即使不发生危机,主权债券市场的地理隔离也极大地妨碍着货币政策的传导。

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