Wie der Vater, so der Sohn

LONDON – “Der Feind von gestern ist der Freund von heute....[E]s war ein echter Krieg, aber diese Brüder sind nun freie Männer.” So sprach Saif al-Islam al-Qaddafi im März 2010 über die Anführer der Libyschen Islamischen Kampfgruppe (LIFG), einer bewaffneten Organisation, die Mitte der 1990er Jahre dreimal versucht hatte, seinen Vater Muammar al-Qaddafi zu ermorden.

Das mag überraschend klingen. Vor ein paar Tagen versprach derselbe Mann den Libyern ein “Meer aus Blut” für den Fall, dass das Regime seines Vaters gestürzt würde. In der Tat wird Saif al-Islam, ein eleganter und sanft sprechender Absolvent der London School of Economics, heute verdächtigt, massive Verbrechen gegen die Menschlichkeit begangen zu haben.

Wer wie ich die Taktik arabischer Diktaturen und die Gründe ihres Beharrungsvermögens studiert, wird von dieser Entwicklung wenig überrascht sein, wenn überhaupt. Anders als Demokratien sind arabische autoritäre Regimes unfähig zur Selbstreform. Sie sind allerdings taktische Meister darin, die Lebensspannen ihrer alternden Tyranneien zu verlängern.

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