Lecciones de la guerra del Líbano

Las guerras se ganan no sólo en el campo de batalla, sino también en las mentes de la gente. Así, si bien Hizbulah no ha ganado decisivamente su actual guerra contra Israel, el hecho de que haya mantenido su capacidad de luchar de cara al poder el ejército israelí ha cautivado la imaginación de los árabes y recuperado el orgullo perdido, del mismo modo como lo hizo el ejército egipcio al cruzar el Canal de Suez en la guerra de 1973. Restaurar el orgullo fue un elemento central en la decisión de Anwar Sadat de ir a Jerusalén y recuperar para Egipto la Península del Sinaí.

Aunque los libaneses comunes y corrientes han pagado un enorme precio humano, económico y de infraestructura, Hizbulah ha dejado claro a los israelíes que ya no pueden dar por descontado su predominio militar. Han quedado en evidencia los límites de la fuerza militar. Más aún, la locura de la guerra ha quedado claramente expuesta ante todos y, una vez que termine la lucha actual, es más probable que ambos lados sean más cautos en el futuro antes de emprender acciones que puedan empujar a sus pueblos y países a la guerra una vez más.

Es probable que el modo como acabe esta guerra cambie el modo como Israel y la comunidad internacional enfrenten las aspiraciones nacionales fundamentales de los pueblos árabes. Ocupar tierras y tener recluidos prisioneros árabes indefinidamente ya no será una ventaja, sino una carga terrible.

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