Уроки ливанской войны

В любой войне победа одерживается не только на поле боя, но и в сознании людей. Таким образом, хотя «Хезболла» и не одержали решительную победу в текущей войне с Израилем, их способность продолжать воевать несмотря на мощь израильской армии завладела воображением арабов, восстановив утраченную гордость, как переход египетской армии через Суэцкий канал в 1973 году. Восстановленная гордость лежала в основе решения Анвара Садата дойти до Иерусалима и вернуть весь Синайский полуостров Египту.

И хотя простые ливанцы заплатили огромную цену с точки зрения человеческих потерь и ущерба экономике и инфраструктуре, «Хезболла» показали Израилю, что он больше не может считать свое военное превосходство доказанным. Была продемонстрирована ограниченность возможностей военной силы; более того, было явно показано безрассудство этой войны, и когда военные действия закончатся, обе стороны, скорее всего, будут гораздо осторожнее в своих действиях, которые могут подтолкнуть их страны и народы к новой войне.

То, как завершится эта война, скорее всего, изменит отношение к фундаментальным национальным стремлениям арабских стран со стороны как Израиля, так и международного сообщества. Бесконечное удерживание арабских земель и заключенных станет тяжелым бременем, а не ценным преимуществом.

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