Trump fan family in victory tour in MI The Washington Post

美国大选的教训

发自斯坦福——唐纳德·特朗普竞逐美国第45任总统的意外胜选令美国国内和国外都涌现出一批专门进行选举后分析和预测的家庭小作坊。有人把特朗普的胜利与西方迈向民粹主义的宏观趋势联系起来,而该现象在欧洲则尤其以英国在6月份公投脱欧为标志。另一些人则关注特朗普作为一个局外人的魅力,竟能够以一种其对手——近乎无懈可击的圈内人前国务卿希拉里——永远不可能做到的方式来搅乱整个政治体系。这些解释(特别是后者)可能有点道理,但这其中还蕴藏着更多的深意。

在选举前的几个月里,主流媒体,专家和民众都一再认定特朗普的取胜之路极为狭窄。他们低估了那些位于关键州的工人阶级家庭因技术和全球化造成的错位而产生的经济焦虑程度。

但是,正如我在选举前两个月特别指出的那样,那些焦虑感的影响是深远的,而那种被忽视和抛离的感觉也是如此——而只有特朗普最终使这个团体找到了存在感。这也是尽管希拉里民调一路领先(在选举开始前还领先5个点),但笔者却意识到特朗普可能成功搅局的原因。

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