Dean Rohrer

Dos recetas de política para la crisis global

WASHINGTON, DC – Algo que los expertos saben, y los inexpertos no, es que saben menos de lo que los inexpertos creen. Esto fue evidente en las recientemente finalizadas Reuniones de Primavera del Fondo Monetario Internacional y el Grupo del Banco Mundial: tres días intensos de conversaciones que reunieron a ministros de economía, funcionarios de bancos centrales y otros responsables de políticas.

Nuestra pericia económica tiene limitaciones fundamentales. Consideren las políticas monetarias y fiscales. A pesar de décadas de cuidadosa recopilación de datos e investigación matemática y estadística, para muchas preguntas importantes contamos con poco más que criterios generales aproximados. Por ejemplo, sabemos que debemos bajar las tasas de interés e inyectar liquidez para luchar contra el estancamiento, y aumentar las tasas de interés de intervención y los coeficientes de reservas bancarias para contener la inflación. A veces confiamos en nuestro criterio para combinar la acción sobre las tasas de interés con operaciones de mercado abierto. Pero es un hecho que nuestra comprensión sobre la mecánica de esas políticas es rudimentaria.

Estos criterios generales funcionan (al menos tolerablemente) como resultado de la evolución. Con el tiempo, las medidas incorrectas son penalizadas y sus usuarios aprenden observando a otros, o desaparecen. Logramos que nuestras políticas monetarias y fiscales sean correctas de la misma forma en que los pájaros construyen sus nidos.

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