Paul Lachine

金融自由市场信条的破灭

发自伦敦——距离美国雷曼兄弟投资银行崩盘事件已是五年,但全世界依然没能为导致金融危机的根本诱因——过度负债——找到解药。这也是为何经济复苏比所有人的预期都要慢的原因(在某些国家甚至还尚未出现复苏迹象)。

大多数经济学家,中央银行家和监管者都不仅没能预测危机的到来,甚至还相信只要持续保持低通胀就能确保金融稳定。与此同时,在急速爆发的危机得到遏制之后,我们也没能预测随之而来的后果竟是那么痛苦。

2009年春季的官方预测既没有预见一场缓慢复苏的到来,也不知道原本局限在美英两国的危机竟然会迅速在欧元区引爆。市场各方也没想到未来五年会出现近乎零利率状况——而且还将持续下去。

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