Paul Lachine

فشل تمويل السوق الحرة

لندن ــ رغم مرور خمس سنوات على انهيار بنك الاستثمار الأميركي ليمان براذرز، فإن العالم لم يعالج حتى الآن سبب اندلاع الأزمة المالية اللاحقة ــ وأقصد هنا بطبيعة الحال الإفراط في الاستدانة. ولهذا السبب كان تقدم التعافي الاقتصادي أبطأ كثيراً من كل التوقعات (في بعض البلدان لم يأت التعافي بتاتا).

والواقع أن أغلب خبراء الاقتصاد ومحافظي البنوك المركزية والقائمين على التنظيم لم يفشلوا في توقع الأزمة فحسب، بل إنهم أيضاً تصوروا أن الاستقرار المالي كان مضموناً ما دام التضخم منخفضاً ومستقرا. وبمجرد احتواء الأزمة الآنية، فشلنا أيضاً في التنبؤ بحجم الآلام التي قد تفرضها عواقب هذه الأزمة.

في ربيع عام 2009، لم تتحدث التوقعات الرسمية عن تعاف بطيء ولم تنبئنا بأن الأزمة الأولية، التي اقتصرت في الأساس على الولايات المتحدة والمملكة المتحدة، قد تؤدي قريباً إلى تأجيج أزمة متسلسلة في منطقة اليورو. ولم تقترب قوى السوق حتى من توقع هبوط أسعار الفائدة إلى ما يقرب من الصفر لمدة خمس سنوات (ولا يزال العد مستمرا).

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