Redes de seguridad financiera para Asia

SEÚL – Las economías emergentes se enfrentan a importantes incertidumbres y a graves riesgos a la baja. Una de las principales fuentes de inestabilidad es la reversión de la política monetaria expansiva de la Reserva Federal de los EE.UU. que se avecina – la posibilidad de que dicha reversión ocurra está generando volatilidad en los mercados financieros mundiales y amenaza con desestabilizar el crecimiento de las economías emergentes.

La Fed ha señalado que su tasa para fondos federales se mantendrá cerca del 0%, por lo menos mientras el desempleo se encuentre por encima el 6,5% y las expectativas de inflación permanezcan bien ancladas. Sin embargo, queda aún en la nebulosa cuándo y el cómo la Fed comenzará a endurecer su política monetaria. Lo que sí es cierto es que al momento de adoptar su decisión la Fed no considerará los efectos indirectos que su política va a tener sobre el resto del mundo, dejando que los diseñadores de políticas y los banqueros centrales en los países afectados sean quienes tengan que lidiar con dichas repercusiones.

Una política monetaria estadounidense más restrictiva podría intensificar la escasez mundial de crédito, lo que aumentaría la presión que pesa sobre los sistemas económicos y financieros de Asia. Una reacción exagerada y un comportamiento gregario de los participantes del mercado podrían provocar una reversión repentina de los flujos de capital, que causaría una grave escasez de dólares – tal como ocurrió en los años 1997 y 2008 – que a su vez estresaría a los bancos y empresas corporativas asiáticas.

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