Finanzielle Sicherheitsnetze für Asien

SEOUL – Die Schwellenökonomien sind mit erheblicher Unsicherheit und gravierenden Abwärtsrisiken konfrontiert. Eine Hauptursache für die Instabilität ist die sich abzeichnende Umkehr der expansiven Geldpolitik der US-Notenbank Federal Reserve. Schon die Aussicht auf eine derartige Entwicklung erzeugt Volatilität auf den internationalen Finanzmärkten und droht das Wachstum in den Schwellenökonomien zu behindern.

Die Fed signalisierte, ihre Federal Funds Rate, also ihren Zielsatz für Tagesgeld, bei nahe 0 Prozent zu belassen, zumindest so lange die Arbeitslosigkeit über 6,5 Prozent liegt und die Inflationserwartungen fest verankert bleiben. Unklar bleibt allerdings, wann und wie die Fed mit der Straffung der Geldpolitik beginnen wird. Fest steht jedenfalls, dass die Fed in ihrer Entscheidungsfindung die Übertragungseffekte auf den Rest der Welt nicht berücksichtigen wird und die Politiker und Zentralbanker in anderen Teilen der Welt deshalb mit den Auswirkungen dieser Politik zurande kommen müssen.

Eine straffere US-Geldpolitik könnte die weltweite Kreditknappheit verschärfen und damit den Druck auf Asiens Wirtschafts- und Finanzsysteme erhöhen. Überreaktionen und Herdenverhalten der Marktteilnehmer könnten eine abrupte Umkehr der Kapitalzuströme auslösen, wodurch es – wie in den Jahren 1997 und 2008 – zu einer akuten Dollarknappheit käme, die asiatische Banken und Unternehmen belastet.

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