黎巴嫩的新局面

贝鲁特——真主党在5月的武装起义占领了贝鲁特和黎巴嫩的其他领土,给这个国家争取真正国家主权的愿望带来了又一次打击。这次武装起义巩固了真主党的地位,削弱了西方支持的政府的势力。但这次起义也带来了在卡塔尔多哈签署的新的政治协议,在长期陷入僵局以后规定举行总统选举,成立民族统一政府,制定新的选举法,并在国家和非国家势力派别——特别是黎巴嫩真主党——之间恢复举行国内谈判。

关于政府5月解职亲真主党的机场安全主管,并调查真主党私有电讯网络的决策背景有着众多的猜测,正是政府做出的这个决策点燃了这次对抗的火花。黎巴嫩政府很长时间以来一直感受到强大的国际压力,要求其至少兑现一部分牵制真主党的国际承诺,而黎巴嫩政府自己也错误地估计了形势,认为真主党只可能采取有限的报复措施。最重要的是,政府错误地以为真主党不会冒险在贝鲁特挑起什叶-逊尼派势力之间的冲突。

真主党发起大规模军事行动,冒险挑起宗派战争并威胁到自身道德优势的决策推理也存在着同样的问题,但真主党大体上已经达到了自己的目的。在军事上,真主党把西贝鲁特可能妨碍其在南郊以外采取行动的所有潜在民兵武装都扼杀在萌芽状态,此外还夺取了对贝鲁特东南面主要高速公路的控制权,并巩固了对首都机场和海港的控制。这些高速路之前的控制权掌握在德鲁兹教派领袖瓦利德·琼卜拉特(Walid Jumblatt)手中。

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