Fluttuare, fluttuare, fluttuare

PECHINO – Malgrado i traballanti fondamentali economici, i titoli di stato americani sono di solito considerati un porto sicuro. Ogniqualvolta scoppia una crisi, il valore dei buoni del Tesoro americani riceve un colpo di acceleratore. Questi titoli sono stati, infatti, tra i pochi asset a non perdere valore durante la crisi finanziaria mondiale del 2008-2009.

Lo status di porto sicuro è però un’illusione. I titoli di stato sono sicuri solo nel senso che nessuno può bloccare la macchina stampa-dollari della Federal Reserve, che va a tutta velocità.

Il valore di mercato dei Treasuries dipende da una serie di fattori. In questo momento si affida essenzialmente a uno “schema di Ponzi”, che grazie a una politica di “quantitative easing” attuata dalla Fed mantiene artificialmente elevato il prezzo di tali titoli. Ma, a conti fatti, nessuna valuta può sottrarsi alle leggi della gravità economica e il prezzo di mercato dei Treasuries scenderà ai livelli dettati dai fondamentali economici americani.

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