Tirer les leçons des crises

PRINCETON – Les crises, particulièrement les plus graves, sont souvent des opportunités d’apprentissage. Malheureusement, jusqu’à présent, le monde semble avoir appris fort peu de la crise financière récente. En fait, la situation aujourd’hui est tout aussi dangereuse qu’elle ne l’était en 2007 : les Etats-Unis s’inquiètent de leur reprise économique anémique, l’Europe est paralysée par la crainte pour la survie de sa zone monétaire et les marchés émergents se battent contre des bulles du prix des actifs.

Tirer des leçons des crises consiste en partie en un exercice d’analyse de ce qui a mal tourné. Mais il s’agit aussi de tirer des solutions. De manière collective, nous avons assez bien réussi sur le premier point, mais avons lamentablement échoué sur le second.

La plupart des explications des causes de la crise financière post 2007 indiquent cinq sources d’instabilité. Premièrement, la crise fut précipitée par les particularités du marché immobilier américain, par des incitants gouvernementaux pour augmenter l’achat de maisons et par une politique de crédit imprudente des institutions financières. 

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