让美国的复苏走进就业

伯克利—2013年美国经济增长比预期快很多,今年似乎会进一步走强。但劳动力市场仍然颓势尽显,而只要这一状况得不到改善,增长加速的好处就会继续向收入分布顶层集中——在整个复苏过程中一直都是这样。

根据最新的BEA统计,实际(经通胀调整的)GDP在2013年的平均年增长率为2.7%,2012年为2%。许多预测机构——包括无党派色彩的国会预算办公室、所谓的蓝筹(Blue Chip)共识和美联储——都认为2014年年实际增长率至少可以达到2.8%。

尽管最近两期的就业报告都没有亮点可寻,但仍有许多理由可以期待2014年会有增长加速。影响美国复苏的阻力——被破坏的家庭资产负债表、萧条的住房市场以及政府支出和就业的下降——正在消失。家庭债务已经降到20世纪90年代初的水平,实际家庭净值已经回到了衰退前的峰值水平,住房投资占GDP的比例也在上升。

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