Intelligent Machines and Displaced Workers

Mar 7, 2014 Laura Tyson

The rise of so-called smart machines will challenge a fundamental feature of economic life: Most people gain their income by selling their labor. So what will happen when the labor of a large number of workers is displaced by technology or no longer commands an income adequate to provide a minimally decent standard of living?

BERKELEY – In their compelling new book The Second Machine Age, Erik Brynjolfsson and Andrew McAfee document the progress in artificial intelligence that is enabling computers to exceed what they were capable of only a few years ago. The leaps in machine intelligence, along with the connection of human beings around the world in a common digital network, will enable the development of new technologies, goods and services.

The authors are optimistic about the “bounty” or economy-wide benefits of brilliant machines. But they warn that the distribution or “spread” of these benefits will be uneven.

Their fears are justified. During the last three decades, even before breakthroughs in artificial intelligence, computers have been replacing and multiplying the physical labor of human beings. Improvements in computer and communications technologies have also enabled employers to offshore many routine tasks that machines cannot directly replace.

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THOMAS HEAD-RAPSON Sep 6, 2015

And what about when the best of us can't retrain fast enough to keep up with the machines? Societal upheaval comes way before then, and we could be talking just a few decades, the way things are accelerating.
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THOMAS HEAD-RAPSON Sep 6, 2015

In your second policy suggestion, I would suggest that " the lower the probability of" should be replaced by "the later". And, as the trend I sacceleration, there will come a point where even the smartest of us will not be able to dedicate or train ourselves sufficiently fast enough to remain ahead of the machines. This could happen in a matter of a few decades, which means a) we already need to plan for that revolution, and b) we already need to plan for the societal scale changes that would come sometime before then.
- THOMAS HEAD-RAPSON Sep 6, 2015
  
  Please excuse my android keyboard, which is continually trying to negate my points by making some of my sentences nonsense.
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Ganesan Srinivasan Jun 3, 2014

The author outlines the problem very well, but the prescription is bizarre. Middle class jobs, as we knew in the past decades, will continue to disappear. This is the main reason behind the growing income inequality that is currently being debated. Public policy efforts should focus on how to better educate our children and help them prepare for an economy where rapid technological changes will provide both opportunities and a lot of heartaches. Older workers will also need to be aware of the need to constantly update their skills, using online educational opportunities, when appropriate to survive in a rapidly changing world. Raising minimum wage and massive income redistribution policies will not solve the issue
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David Harry Mar 10, 2014

"In the US, educational attainment levels are not keeping pace with technology’s demands" .. and SAT is in the process of effectively lowering their educational assessment standards...
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Gerry Hofman Mar 10, 2014

A very good article on a difficult and widely ignored subject. On the one hand people have long been looking out for a time when we no longer have to work because machines will do the work, on the other hand, without work we will not have an income. A new wave of technology can easily bring this situation around. In response to this we will on the one hand have to deal with politicians who are in deep denial about this, backed by a wealthy elite who are pushing to reduce social services to save money. On the other hand there is for instance the European initiative of the Unconditional Basic Income, a policy which , although it does not yet have the required support, will become increasingly important. Policies like these however will not come about without a fight. Although we can clearly see that western countries will continue to lose jobs and employment until very large sectors of society are no longer employable, unless ways can be found to spread the wealth to enable people to afford and utilize the technology, delivering financial security to those people may take nothing less then a new social revolution. A revolution fought between an increasingly destitute populace and the class of the ultra wealthy, as a mid century world of ten billion individuals can only survive when wealth and resources are shared equally.
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Joshua Lee Mar 7, 2014

The biggest disruption to come next will be with autonomous vehicles. Truck drivers, bus drivers, taxi, limo, delivery vehicles, even planes, trains and ships. The technology exists now, it is a matter of legislation and liability insurance. Different jurisdictions will surely adapt in different ways. Business owners will be driving the agenda but the capital costs will be large. Consumers might improve efficiency and productivity however being able to work or sleep en route. Car sharing schemes are proliferating undermining protected taxi regimes.

Will the economy absorb these workers fast enough? Will there be political pressure for expanded safety nets? If you think technology through occupation by occupation I think we can be optimistic. Doctors for example wont be going anywhere as the regulate their own profession. They have the keys to the medicine chest and regulate their own numbers and practices.

I cant see robots taking over most of the trades except maybe welding. It would be extremely expensive to make plumber and electrician robots. Perhaps in limited factory type settings like modular yards. And again that work is somewhat protected in North America. Im not sure if a company that wanted to use bipedal construction robots would be welcome by consumers or be given the legal right to do so.

What will be the effects on white collar corporate and government employees? This might relate more to artificial intelligence or something more limited much like office software was. They seem relatively safe in the short term at least. I don't think education or health care workers have too much worry. Again these groups are unionised for the most part and have virtual monopolies. Private education, computer tutoring might be disruptive especially in underdeveloped countries however. Also in the service industry, the media, law, finance and sales. Software dosn't seem to be autonomous enough, powerful or adaptive enough yet to threaten these kinds of jobs. Tools to make them more productive are surely going to come. Will this reduce the need for head count?

Natural resourses has seen huge technological change especially agriculture. But there are plenty of high paying jobs in energy extraction which will require manpower. Fully automated or at least remotely controlled drilling rigs seem possible.

I see security and the military as growth industries ;)
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Tomas Kurian Mar 7, 2014

And add to it that some "leaders" are advising to postpone the retirement age and reduce pension benefits - this also has to do with advances in technological development.

Technological progress is great, but we must learn how to pass the increased productivity to the people, instead of watching how it kills them.

Postponing the pension age – the biggest economical nonsense ever
http://www.genomofcapitalism.com/index.php/4-3-1-postponing-the-pension-age-the-biggest-economical-nonsense-ever
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