Lateinamerikas unendliche Geschichte

Es ist wieder so weit. Lateinamerika steckt in gewaltigen Schwierigkeiten und die üblichen Verdächtigen (der IWF, das US-Finanzministerium) sind zu Hilfe gekommen. All das hat die Welt schon oft erlebt.

Aus dreißig Jahren makroökonomischer Umwälzungen kann unter dem Strich eine einfache Lehre gezogen werden: Verglichen mit ihren Fähigkeiten durch normale Arten der Besteuerung die Einnahmen zu erhöhen, sind die Regierungen innerhalb der Region zu groß. Bis diese entscheidende Problematik geklärt ist, werden Krisen zur Normalität gehören, denn die grundlegende wirtschaftliche Entscheidung, die diese Länder treffen müssen, wird weiterhin darin bestehen, die Einnahmen durch Inflation zu erhöhen oder die Schulden weiter wachsen zu lassen.

In einem typischen Zyklus -Argentinien liefert ein perfektes Beispiel- darf die Inflation eine Zeit lang steigen. Steuereinnahmen nehmen zu während die Schulden stabil bleiben. Doch im Lauf der Zeit lernen die Menschen mit der hohen Inflation zu leben, schirmen die Konjunktur vor ihren Auswirkungen ab und verringern so die Einnahmen, die durch die "Inflationssteuer" erzielt werden. Wenn es so weit ist, sinken die Staatseinnahmen, der Nutzen hoher Inflation verschwindet und die politische Unterstützung für eine Stabilisierung verdichtet sich.

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