Gli alti e bassi valutari dell’America Latina

BUENOS AIRES – Sin dalla Seconda Guerra Mondiale, i paesi dell’America Latina sono una specie di laboratorio per lo studio delle valute. Sono infiniti i regimi di cambio sperimentati nella regione  – qualcuno riuscito, qualcun altro fallito miseramente.

In tutti i casi, tuttavia, le politiche sul tasso di cambio hanno rivestito un ruolo centrale nel determinare i generali risultati macroeconomici di questi paesi. E oggi, dopo due decenni di turbolenze, sembrano convergere verso un sistema più unificato e sostenibile.

Gli anni ’80 sono stati un decennio sconvolgente per la maggior parte dei paesi sudamericani. L’azione combinata di un secondo shock petrolifero, degli elevati tassi di interesse internazionali e della mancanza di investimenti esteri fu la causa dei notevoli squilibri interni ed esterni e degli elevati livelli di debito estero. In tutti i maggiori paesi, si andò quindi verso un default, verso continui aggiustamenti nei tassi di cambio, e per la fine del decennio, verso una severa spirale di inflazione/svalutazione, che in certi casi, è sconfinata nell’iperinflazione.

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