Guatemala economy John Moore/Getty Images

América Latina crecerá en 2017

CARACAS – En 2017 se espera que la región abandone la recesión, aunque con un crecimiento bastante modesto, de menos del 2%. Esto nos da cierto espacio para la esperanza, aunque tampoco hay que ser demasiado optimistas. Teniendo en cuenta la tradicional vulnerabilidad de América Latina ante los vientos económicos mundiales, el balance de riesgos sigue inclinado a la baja en un año que se promete incierto.

El 2017, sin embargo, será mejor que el 2016, que no empezó bien para América Latina como consecuencia de la desaceleración en China y de la anémica recuperación de las economías avanzadas. Los temores de un mayor deterioro del gigante asiático impactaron en los mercados financieros y provocaron fuertes caídas en el precio de las materias primas y en los activos de los mercados emergentes. Y aunque las preocupaciones sobre China se disiparon algo a lo largo del año, los flujos de capital siguieron desplazándose de los mercados emergentes a destinos más seguros.

El Brexit a mediados de año y el triunfo de Trump también contribuyeron a generar un clima de incertidumbre económica, elevando la volatilidad en los mercados. Y como no podía ser de otra manera en una economía globalizada, Latinoamérica vio como el financiamiento externo se limitaba, encarecía y dificultaba, y las monedas se debilitaban, reduciendo así el margen de maniobra de los bancos centrales y la capacidad de financiar las cuentas externas y fiscales.

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