Man in cart pulled by donkey

Retour à la réalité pour l'économie de l'Afrique

BOSTON – La baisse mondiale du prix des matières premières et le ralentissement économique de la Chine ont mis à genoux plusieurs économies africaines : il est à présent clair que « l'ascension » du continent était un mythe. Le moment est venu de réexaminer les fondements du récent « boom » de l'Afrique et de passer de la rhétorique du sentiment de bien-être à l'action en vue d'une véritable transformation économique.

Les exportateurs de matières premières comme l'Angola, le Ghana, le Nigeria, l'Afrique du Sud et la Zambie sont sous le choc. Les cours de leurs monnaies descendent en flèche depuis que les prix des matières premières comme le pétrole et le cuivre ont commencé à baisser fortement. En outre, les politiques budgétaires et monétaires sont en plein désarroi, avec une augmentation du risque de troubles sociaux si la tendance ne s'inverse pas à court ou à moyen terme.

Voici le nœud du problème : les pays africains ont pris un boom de super-cycle des matières premières pour une transformation économique durable. Mais un boom implique une bonne fortune passagère : mieux vaut en profiter tant qu'elle dure, ou bien économiser les bénéfices pour les jours de vache maigre. La plupart des gouvernements africains ont choisi la première option.

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