Ein Zeugnis für die Abenomics

TOKIO – Vor fast einem Jahr hat Premierminister Shinzo Abe sein „Abenomics“ genanntes Programm begonnen, um die japanische Wirtschaft aus zwei Jahrzehnten der Deflation und Rezession zu ziehen. Wie ist es bisher gelaufen?

Um diese Frage beantworten zu können, muss man die Abenomics in ihre drei Komponenten zerlegen – eine massive Lockerung der Geldpolitik, expansive Fiskalpolitik und eine langfristige Wachstumsstrategie –, die Abe in Anlehnung an die Geschichte von Motonari Mori, einem Daimyō (Feudalherr) aus dem sechzehnten Jahrhundert, die „drei Pfeile“ nennt. Der Legende zufolge hat Mori jeden seiner drei Söhne angewiesen, einen Pfeil in der Mitte durchzubrechen. Nachdem ihnen das gelungen war, ließ er sie drei Pfeile zu einem Bündel zusammenbinden, das sie zerbrechen sollten; das ist keinem von ihnen gelungen.

So wie Moris drei Pfeile sollen sich die drei Pfeile der Abenomics gegenseitig verstärken. Doch Moris Pfeile waren parallel gebündelt, während Abes politischen Pfeilen strukturelle Zusammenhänge zugrunde liegen. Während der erste und der zweite Pfeil darauf abzielen, Japans gegenwärtigen Wachstumspfad zu transformieren, ist der dritte am potenziellen Wachstumspfad der Wirtschaft orientiert, ausgehend von der optimalen Nutzung aller vorhandenen Ressourcen und Technologien.

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