تقييم "اقتصاد آبي"

طوكيو ــ لقد مر عام تقريباً منذ أطلق رئيس الوزراء الياباني شينزو آبي خطته لانتشال اقتصاد اليابان من عقدين من الانكماش والركود. ولكن كيف كان أداء "اقتصاد آبي" حتى الآن؟

إن الإجابة على هذا السؤال تتطلب تحليل اقتصاد آبي إلى مكوناته الثلاثة ــ التيسير النقدي الهائل، والسياسة المالية التوسعية، واستراتيجية النمو الطويلة الأجل ــ والتي أطلق عليها آبي وصف "الأسهم الثلاثة" في إشارة إلى حكاية موتوناري موري، الإقطاعي الكبير من القرن السادس عشر. ووفقاً للأسطورة فإن موري أصدر تعليماته إلى كلٍ من أبنائه الثلاثة بكسر سهم من المنتصف. وبعد نجاحهم في ذلك طلب منهم أن يربطوا الأسهم الثلاثة معاً وأن يكسروا الحزمة كاملة دفعة واحدة؛ ولكن لم يتمكن أي منهم من كسرها.

ومثل أسهم موري الثلاثة، فمن المفترض أن تعزز أسهم اقتصاد آبي من قوة بعضها البعض. ولكن أسهم موري كانت مربوطة معاً بالتوازي، في حين أن أسهم سياسة آبي مرتبطة من خلال علاقات بنيوية أساسية. وفي حين يستهدف السهمين الأول والثاني تحويل مسار النمو الفعلي في اليابان، فإن الثالث يعمل على مسار النمو المحتمل للاقتصاد، والذي يفترض الاستخدام الأمثل لكل الموارد والتكنولوجيات المتاحة.

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