الاقتصاد العالمي في عام 2014

جنيف ــ مع بزوغ فجر عام جديد يمر العالم بتحولات ملحمية عديدة. فكافة أنماط النمو الاقتصادي، والمشهد الجيوسياسي، والعقد الاجتماعي الذي يربط الناس معا، والنظام البيئي لكوكب الأرض، كل هذا يخضع الآن لتحولات جذرية متزامنة، الأمر الذي يؤدي إلى تولد القلق والانزعاج، وفي العديد من الأماكن الاضطرابات.

ومن المنظور الاقتصادي، فنحن ندخل حقبة من التوقعات والآفاق المتضائلة والشكوك المتزايدة. وفي ما يتصل بالنمو فإن العالم سوف يكون لزاماً عليها أن يتعايش مع قدر أقل من النمو. ولكي نفهم العواقب الضمنية المترتبة على هذا فلنتأمل ما يلي: إذا سجل الاقتصاد العالمي نمواً لا يقل عن وتيرة ما قبل الأزمة (أكثر من 5% سنويا) في المستقبل المنظور، فإن حجمه سوف يتضاعف في أقل من خمسة عشر عاما؛ وإذا كان النمو بنسبة 3% فإن تضاعف الناتج المحلي الإجمالي العالمي سوف يستغرق نحو 25 عاما.

ويشكل هذا فارقاً كبيراً بالنسبة للسرعة التي تتم بها عملية خلق الثروة، فضلاً عن التأثيرات العميقة على التوقعات. فنحن نتجاهل قوة النمو المركب بما لا يتفق مع مصالحنا.

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