Una Lacrima per l’Argentina

CAMBRIDGE – L’ultimo default dell'Argentina pone i politici davanti a domande inquietanti. È certamente vero che le periodiche crisi del debito del paese sono spesso il risultato di politiche macroeconomiche autodistruttive. Ma, questa volta, il default è stato innescato da un significativo cambiamento di regime del debito sovrano internazionale.

La trasformazione favorisce i creditori intransigenti che detengono emissioni obbligazionarie regolate dal diritto statunitense. Con la crescita dei mercati emergenti in rallentamento, e il debito estero in aumento, nuove interpretazioni giuridiche che rendano i possibili ripianamenti e svalutazioni futuri del debito più difficili non sono di buon auspicio per la stabilità finanziaria globale.

Non ci sono eroi in questa storia, non certo i politici argentini, che un decennio fa hanno tentato unilateralmente di imporre una massiccia svalutazione generalizzata agli obbligazionisti stranieri. Gli economisti che hanno strombazzato le lodi del "consenso Buenos Aires", in quanto nuovo modo di gestire le economie, appaiono anch’essi poco arguti col senno di poi. Il Fondo monetario internazionale ha da tempo riconosciuto che aveva fatto un prestito di troppo, per cercare di salvare l’insostenibile l’ancoraggio della moneta argentina al dollaro, quando la stessa crollò nel 2001.

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