Une larme pour l’Argentine

CAMBRIDGE – Le dernier défaut de paiement en date de l'Argentine soulève des questions troublantes pour les décideurs. Certes, les crises de la dette périodiques du pays sont souvent le résultat de politiques macroéconomiques autodestructrices. Mais, cette fois, le défaut a été déclenché par un changement important du régime de la dette souveraine internationale.

Le changement favorise les créanciers extrémistes dans l'émission d'obligations régies par le droit des États-Unis. Avec le ralentissement de la croissance des marchés émergents et l’augmentation de la dette extérieure, les nouvelles interprétations juridiques qui compliquent les futurs dépréciations et rééchelonnements de dette n'augurent rien de bon pour la stabilité financière mondiale.

Il n'y a aucun héros dans cette histoire, et certainement pas les décideurs de l'Argentine qui, il y a une dizaine d'années, ont tenté d’imposer unilatéralement une dépréciation généralisée massive aux détenteurs d'obligations étrangères. Les économistes qui ont claironné que le « consensus de Buenos Aires » était la nouvelle façon de gérer les économies paraissent tout aussi stupides avec le recul. Le Fonds monétaire international a reconnu depuis longtemps qu'il a octroyé un prêt de trop pour essayer de sauver le taux de change fixe par rapport au dollar insoutenable de l'Argentine lors de son effondrement en 2001.

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