Hoe fragiel zijn de opkomende markten?

CAMBRIDGE – De aandelen en wisselkoersen van de opkomende markten staan opnieuw onder zware neerwaartse druk, maar zijn de onderliggende economieën echt zo fragiel als de mondiale handel lijkt te vrezen? Het korte antwoord voor enkele ervan is waarschijnlijk, ‘ja’, maar voor de meeste ‘voorlopig nog niet’.

In de meeste landen zien we een herijking terwijl investeerders het risico proberen te incorporeren dat;  het Chinese bbp langzamer zou kunnen stijgen, dat de Federal Reserve van de VS de monetaire voorwaarden sneller zou kunnen verstrakken en dat de beleidsterugval in veel landen de potentiele groei zou kunnen ondermijnen. Tegelijkertijd zijn de enorme verschuiving van Europa naar een handelsverschot (een sleutelfactor die de nieuw gevonden stabiliteit van de regio stut) en de scherpe waardevermindering van de yen twee van de vele factoren die landen die proberen hun tekorten op hun rekening-courant op te lossen uitknijpen.

Het is als de dag van gisteren dat analisten van Goldman Sachs het groeiwonder van de BRICS  (Brazilië, Rusland, India, China en Zuid-Afrika) vierden en het Internationaal Monetair Fonds in zijn World Economic Outlook van april 2013 een razendsnel mondiaal herstel voorspelde geleid door de opkomende markten.

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