新兴市场有多脆弱?

美国剑桥—新兴市场股票和汇率再议处于严重的压力之下,但基础经济真的如全球交易者担忧的那样脆弱吗?简单的回答,对一部分人可能是“是”,但对大部分人是“尚未”。

对大部分国家,我们看到的是重估——投资者开始考虑中国GDP增长可能进一步放缓、美联储可能开始更快地收紧货币政策、许多国家的政策倒退可能威胁潜在增长。与此同时,欧洲大规模转向贸易盈余(该地区新近出现的稳定之势的关键原因)和日元的大幅贬值以及其他众多原因让寻求解决经常项目赤字问题的国家十分被动。

高盛分析师大唱“金砖国家”(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)增长奇迹的赞歌和国际货币基金组织(IMF)在其《2013年世界经济展望》预测新兴市场将领导三速全球复苏彷佛就在昨天。

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