夸大其词的通胀之死

发自剑桥——高通胀时代已经一去不复返了吗?在一个增长缓慢,债务高企,分配压力巨大的世界,通货膨胀究竟是死了还是仅仅休眠是一个重要问题。没错,大量有关中央银行的制度改革针对高通胀建立了巨大的屏障。但中央银行信誉的一个重要组成部分最终来自于其运作的宏观经济环境。

上世纪90年代前半期,非洲国家年通胀率平均为40%,拉丁美洲为230%,东欧转型经济体为360%。而在80年代初,发达经济体的通胀率平均接近10%。今天,高通货膨胀看起来那么遥远,许多分析人士只把它当成一个理论上的玩意儿。

他们这么想是不对的。无论中央银行如何希望显示出通胀水平仅仅是一个技术性的决定,但它最终还是一个社会选择。而某些在过去二十年中有助于遏制通货膨胀的压力已经消退。

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