Quel progrès économique pour demain ?

WASHINGTON, DC – Lentement mais sûrement, le débat sur la nature de la croissance économique entre dans une nouvelle phase. La différence entre les questions qui émergent aujourd'hui et celles des décennies précédentes est suffisante pour percevoir un changement de cadre conceptuel qui va désormais structurer la discussion sur le progrès et la politique économique.

La première question concerne le rythme de la croissance économique dans l'avenir. Elle suscite un profond désaccord entre les économistes. Ainsi, Robert Gordon de la Northwestern University aux USA estime qu'à moyen terme l'économie américaine atteindra difficilement un taux de croissance de 0,5% par habitant. D'autres, tel le très prudent Dani Rodrik, sont pessimistes quant à la croissance des économies émergentes. L'idée fondamentale commune à beaucoup d'analystes réputés est que le progrès technique va être lent, de même que le rattrapage des pays développés par les pays émergents.

A l'opposé, on trouve ceux qui croient en un progrès technologique fulgurant. Selon eux, nous sommes au début de la Quatrième révolution industrielle. Elle va se caractériser par l'apparition de "machines intelligentes" qui se substitueront aux employés non qualifiés ou peu qualifiés. L'arrivée de ces "robots" (certains seront des logiciels), ainsi que des "créatures d'Internet", va se traduire par une énorme augmentation de la productivité dans des domaines tels que les économies d'énergie, le transport (par exemple des voitures sans chauffeur), les soins médicaux ou la personnalisation de la production de masse grâce aux imprimantes 3D.

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.

required

Log in

http://prosyn.org/BcJluJh/fr;
  1. An employee works at a chemical fiber weaving company VCG/Getty Images

    China in the Lead?

    For four decades, China has achieved unprecedented economic growth under a centralized, authoritarian political system, far outpacing growth in the Western liberal democracies. So, is Chinese President Xi Jinping right to double down on authoritarianism, and is the “China model” truly a viable rival to Western-style democratic capitalism?

  2. The assembly line at Ford Bill Pugliano/Getty Images

    Whither the Multilateral Trading System?

    The global economy today is dominated by three major players – China, the EU, and the US – with roughly equal trading volumes and limited incentive to fight for the rules-based global trading system. With cooperation unlikely, the world should prepare itself for the erosion of the World Trade Organization.

  3. Donald Trump Saul Loeb/Getty Images

    The Globalization of Our Discontent

    Globalization, which was supposed to benefit developed and developing countries alike, is now reviled almost everywhere, as the political backlash in Europe and the US has shown. The challenge is to minimize the risk that the backlash will intensify, and that starts by understanding – and avoiding – past mistakes.

  4. A general view of the Corn Market in the City of Manchester Christopher Furlong/Getty Images

    A Better British Story

    Despite all of the doom and gloom over the United Kingdom's impending withdrawal from the European Union, key manufacturing indicators are at their highest levels in four years, and the mood for investment may be improving. While parts of the UK are certainly weakening economically, others may finally be overcoming longstanding challenges.

  5. UK supermarket Waring Abbott/Getty Images

    The UK’s Multilateral Trade Future

    With Brexit looming, the UK has no choice but to redesign its future trading relationships. As a major producer of sophisticated components, its long-term trade strategy should focus on gaining deep and unfettered access to integrated cross-border supply chains – and that means adopting a multilateral approach.

  6. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now