经济进步的未来

华盛顿—关于经济增长的性质的争论进入了新阶段，这一变化虽然缓慢，但无可置疑。信服显得问题与近几十年来的争论问题大相径庭，我们可以从中感受到决定未来经济进步（以及经济政策）讨论的概念框架的变化。

第一个问题是关于未来经济增长潜在速度的，这一问题造成了经济学家之间的严重分歧。比如，西北大学的罗伯特·戈登（Robert Gordon）认为，从中期看，美国经济年人均增长达到0.5%就要谢天谢地了。另一些人——其中最认真的大概是丹尼·罗德里克（Dani Rodrik），对新兴经济体深感悲观。许多大牌分析家的共同假设是技术进步将会减速，包括与新兴和发展中国家关系最密切的赶超收益。

另一边是“新科技派”，他们认为我们正站在第四次工业革命的门口，这次工业革命的特征是真正的“智能机器”，它们将成为中低技能劳动力的近乎完美的替代品。这些“机器人”（其中一些以软件的面目出现）也可称为“物联网”（Internet of things），拜3D打印所赐，它们将在能源效率、交通（如自动驾驶汽车）、医疗和个性化大生产等领域极大地提高生产率。

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