Die Erneuerung der ramponierten europäischen Sozialverträge

WASHINGTON, DC – Den größten Teil des Jahres 2014 schien sich die Eurozone in einer Erholungsphase zu befinden – schwach und unbeständig, aber trotzdem real. Im April schätzte der Internationale Währungsfonds, das allgemeine BIP-Wachstum könne dieses Jahr bei leicht sinkender Arbeitslosigkeit 1,2% erreichen, gegenüber der früheren Vorhersage von 1% eine leichte Steigerung. Da in den Ländern der Peripherie der Eurozone die Bedrohung durch unhaltbar hohe Zinssätze vorbei war, schien der Weg zu einer baldigen moderaten Erholung und einer darauf folgenden Beschleunigung des Wachstums im Jahr 2015 frei zu sein.

Zwar ist es wichtig, nicht zu stark auf Quartalszahlen zu reagieren, aber trotzdem sind die jüngsten Daten und einige der korrigierten Daten für das erste Quartal zutiefst enttäuschend. Der Pessimismus von vor zwei Jahren ist zurück – und dies aus gutem Grund.

Italien befindet sich in einer waschechten Rezession, weit entfernt von den erhofften Zeichen eines Aufschwungs. Das französische Wachstum liegt nahe bei Null. Sogar das deutsche BIP ging im ersten Halbjahr auf Quartalsbasis zurück. Finnland, ein starker Befürworter strenger Sparpolitik, befindet sich für die erste Jahreshälfte im negativen Bereich.

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