Régénérer le contrat social dégradé de l’Europe

WASHINGTON, DC – Il semble que la zone euro ait traversé une période de reprise tout au long de la première moitié de 2014 – faible et fragile, mais néanmoins réelle. En avril, le Fond Monétaire International estimait la croissance globale du PIB à 1,2% cette année, avec un léger recul du chômage, soit une estimation en hausse par rapport à sa précédente projection d’une croissance de 1%. Avec la disparition de la menace de taux d’intérêt trop élevés dans les pays périphériques de la zone euro, une reprise modérée était envisageable, avec une accélération de la croissance en 2015.

S’il est important de ne pas s’arrêter à ces données trimestrielles, les récentes données, ainsi que certaines des données révisées pour le premier trimestre, sont extrêmement décevantes. Le pessimisme qui prévalait il y a deux ans semble à nouveau être de mise – et pour de bonnes raisons.

L’Italie est en récession, et semble loin de montrer les signes attendus de vitalité. La croissance de la France est proche de zéro. Même l’Allemagne a connu un recul de son PIB en termes trimestriels dans la première moitié de l’année. La Finlande, fervente partisane de la politique d’austérité, était elle au négatif au premier semestre de l’année.  

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