大崩溃?

伊斯坦布尔—本月是一战爆发一百周年纪念,也是深刻思考大风险的良机。正如迈克尔·斯宾塞(Michael Spence)最近所警告的,国际秩序的安全赤字日益扩大,这反映出我们所具备的全球治理正在日益衰落,这一问题正在快速成为世界经济所面临的最大风险。一个世纪以前也是如此。

1914年7月30日,在斐迪南大公于萨拉热窝遇刺五周后,奥地利军舰开始炮轰贝尔格莱德。到8月中旬,全世界都卷入了战争。四年后,当停战协议最终达成时,已有2,000万人失去了生命,而在短暂的停战期后爆发了更加恐怖的第二次世界大战。

在1914年8月之前的几年中,直到斐迪南大公遇刺之前,全球经济表现相对来说相当出色:贸易在全球扩张,金融市场看起来十分健康,商界对政治问题不太关心,认为即便不是暂时性的也与商业无关。一场政治崩溃把世界经济拖入了可怕的三十年。

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