基础设施应单独成一类

北京—近几个月来,中国的经济指标令人失望,中国国务院抛出了集中于社会保障房和铁路建设的“迷你刺激”计划。此前一个月,李克强总理宣布中国的年增长目标是“7.5%左右”,与去年持平。言下之意是明确的:尽管消费推动型增长仍是中国的长期目标,但基础设施——至少在短期——依然是中国经济的重要推动力。

当然,中国决非唯一一个依赖基础设施投资支持经济增长的经济体。世界银行估算,2001—2005年,基础设施投资贡献了撒哈拉以南非洲地区经济增长加速的近一半。

据世界银行的数据,基础设施投资增加10%将伴随GDP增长1%。这笔投资还能创造就业——从短期看,是通过创造对原材料和劳动力的需求;从长期看,是通过创造对相关服务的需求。比如,每1亿美元农村公路维持投资可以创造约25,000—50,000个就业机会。

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