El salto del BCE a lo desconocido

FRÁNCFORT – El Banco Central Europeo está metido en un gran experimento arriesgado. Los tipos de interés principales han permanecido próximos a cero desde hace ya seis años. Los mercados financieros están inundados de liquidez. El resultado de la gestión de la crisis han sido importantes distorsiones de los mercados, por lo que el funcionamiento de algunos segmentos ha dejado de poder explicarse por los datos económicos fundamentales. Las consecuencias no deseadas de esa política resultan cada vez más visibles y llegarán a ser cada vez más tangibles, al abandonar la Reserva Federal la política monetaria ultrarrelajada desde 2008.

Y, sin embargo, la crisis de Europa dista de haberse acabado, como lo demuestran las decisiones adoptadas por el Consejo de Gobierno del Banco Central Europeo en los pasados meses de junio y septiembre. Es el reflejo de dos factores: demasiado poca ambición al hacer correcciones esenciales de los balances y avances lentos –insignificantes en Francia e Italia– en la reestructuración de las economías nacionales de Europa.

Así, pues, debemos considerar que la decisión del CBE de intensificar el estímulo monetario es un acto de desesperación. Se ha reducido su tipo principal al 0,05 por ciento, el tipo de los depósitos es negativo y las operaciones selectivas de refinanciación deben apoyar los préstamos bancarios. Además, se reavivará el mercado de valores respaldados por activos con la compra de dichos valores. Todo ello va encaminado a inundar los mercados, ampliar el balance del sistema del euro en 700.000 millones de euros (890.000 millones de dólares) y recuperar el volumen de los balances registrado al comienzo de 2012.

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