欧洲央行跃向未知

法兰克福—欧洲央行正在实施一项大型高风险实验。如今,关键利率保持近零水平已有六年。金融市场充斥着流动性。危机管理导致了巨大的市场扭曲,一些细分市场的表现已不再能用经济基本面数据解释。这一政策的意外后果正变得日益清晰,随着美联储退出其2008年以来的极度宽松政策,其后果还会变的更加明确。

而欧洲危机还远未结束,欧洲央行管理委员会6月9月的决定说明了一切。这反映出两个因素:实施关键性资产负债表修正的决定不够,以及欧洲各国政府重组进展缓慢(法国和意大利就是明证)。

因此,欧洲央行决定将货币刺激加倍的决定应该被视为绝望的行动。其关键利率已下降至0.05%,存款利率已为负值,定向长期再融资操作意在支持银行放贷。此外,资产支持证券(ABS)市场将因购买ABS的计划而得到复苏。所有这些都是为了提振市场、将欧元系统的资产负债表扩大7,000亿欧元,并使其回到2012年初创下的纪录水平。

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