Esperanza china de altos ingresos

SHANGHÁI – Hay amplio consenso en que el desarrollo económico implica más que el mero crecimiento del PIB. China está aprendiendo ahora que uno no garantiza al otro. A menos que los líderes chinos mejoren la estrategia de crecimiento para estimular el progreso tecnológico y la transformación estructural, la clasificación de altos ingresos continuará eludiendo al país con la segunda mayor economía y la mayor población del mundo.

Ciertamente, la estrategia china de crecimiento –impulsada por la inversión en infraestructura, un masivo aumento de las exportaciones manufactureras de bajo costo, y transferencias de tecnología– ha llevado a cierto cambio estructural. A medida que el trabajo y el capital pasaron de sectores y regiones de baja productividad a actividades más productivas, la asignación de recursos se tornó más eficiente, aumentaron los salarios reales y la estructura económica mejoró.

Pero no se puede depender de las mismas estrategias de crecimiento que llevan a un país pobre a niveles de ingreso medio para alcanzar la clasificación de altos ingresos. De hecho, no son pocos los países cuyos líderes han fracasado a la hora de reconocer las limitaciones de sus estrategias y de proporcionar suficientes incentivos para impulsar la emergencia de una estrategia alternativa, lo que llevó al estancamiento de sus economías y los dejó en la «trampa del ingreso medio».

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

Registration is quick and easy and requires only your email address. If you already have an account with us, please log in. Or subscribe now for unlimited access.


Log in;
  1. Chris J Ratcliffe/Getty Images

    The Brexit Surrender

    European Union leaders meeting in Brussels have given the go-ahead to talks with Britain on post-Brexit trade relations. But, as European Council President Donald Tusk has said, the most difficult challenge – forging a workable deal that secures broad political support on both sides – still lies ahead.

  2. The Great US Tax Debate

    ROBERT J. BARRO vs. JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS on the impact of the GOP tax  overhaul.

    • Congressional Republicans are finalizing a tax-reform package that will reshape the business environment by lowering the corporate-tax rate and overhauling deductions. 

    • But will the plan's far-reaching changes provide the boost to investment and growth that its backers promise?

    ROBERT J. BARRO | How US Corporate Tax Reform Will Boost Growth

    JASON FURMAN & LAWRENCE H. SUMMERS | Robert Barro's Tax Reform Advocacy: A Response

  3. Murdoch's Last Stand?

    Rupert Murdoch’s sale of 21st Century Fox’s entertainment assets to Disney for $66 billion may mark the end of the media mogul’s career, which will long be remembered for its corrosive effect on democratic discourse on both sides of the Atlantic. 

    From enabling the rise of Donald Trump to hacking the telephone of a murdered British schoolgirl, Murdoch’s media empire has staked its success on stoking populist rage.

  4. Bank of England Leon Neal/Getty Images

    The Dangerous Delusion of Price Stability

    Since the hyperinflation of the 1970s, which central banks were right to combat by whatever means necessary, maintaining positive but low inflation has become a monetary-policy obsession. But, because the world economy has changed dramatically since then, central bankers have started to miss the monetary-policy forest for the trees.

  5. Harvard’s Jeffrey Frankel Measures the GOP’s Tax Plan

    Jeffrey Frankel, a professor at Harvard University’s Kennedy School of Government and a former member of President Bill Clinton’s Council of Economic Advisers, outlines the five criteria he uses to judge the efficacy of tax reform efforts. And in his view, the US Republicans’ most recent offering fails miserably.

  6. A box containing viles of human embryonic Stem Cell cultures Sandy Huffaker/Getty Images

    The Holy Grail of Genetic Engineering

    CRISPR-Cas – a gene-editing technique that is far more precise and efficient than any that has come before it – is poised to change the world. But ensuring that those changes are positive – helping to fight tumors and mosquito-borne illnesses, for example – will require scientists to apply the utmost caution.

  7. The Year Ahead 2018

    The world’s leading thinkers and policymakers examine what’s come apart in the past year, and anticipate what will define the year ahead.

    Order now