中国的高收入希望

上海—一个被广泛接受的观点是经济发展不仅仅意味着GDP增长。中国现在知道,增长和发展并非有此即有彼的关系。除非中国领导人改革增长战略以刺激技术进步和制度转型,否则高收入将仍是这个世界第二大经济体和第一大人口国可望而不可及的成就。

平心而论,中国的增长战略——受基础设施、低成本制造业出口大规模增长和技术转移推动——已经带来了可观的结构变化。随着劳动力和资本从低生产率部门和地区转移到高生产率活动去,资源配置也变得更有效率,真实工资有所增长,经济结构也获得了升级。

但让一个穷国步入中等收入行列的增长战略是无法继续执行同样的增长战略让这个国家实现高收入的。事实上,有许多国家,其领导人没有认识到增长战略的约束条件并给予足够的激励鼓励新战略,结果导致经济陷入停滞,受困于所谓的“中等收入陷阱”。

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