Le Grand malaise des pays avancés

NEW YORK – Il y a quelque chose d'affligeant à faire un bilan de fin d'année cinq ans après la crise financière mondiale de 2008. Nous avons évité une deuxième Grande dépression, mais pas le Grand malaise né dans son sillage, car sauf pour une minorité, le revenu des citoyens des pays avancés stagnent - une situation qui va sans doute se prolonger en 2014.

Aux USA, le revenu médian baisse continuellement ; le revenu des travailleurs est inférieur à ce qu'il était il y a 40 ans. La récession en double creux de l'Europe s'est terminée en 2013, mais personne ne peut sérieusement prétendre que la reprise a suivi. Plus de la moitié des jeunes Espagnols et des jeunes Grecs sont au chômage. Le FMI prévoit pour l'Espagne un taux de chômage supérieur à 25% dans les années à venir.

Le véritable danger pour l'Europe est de s'enfoncer dans un sentiment d'autosatisfaction. Tout au long de 2013 le rythme des réformes institutionnelles vitales s'est ralenti. Ainsi la zone euro a besoin d'une véritable union bancaire (qui ne se limite pas à une supervision bancaire commune, mais intègre une assurance commune des dépôts et un mécanisme commun de résolution des crises) et d'euro-obligations ou d'un véhicule similaire pour mutualiser la dette. Mais en 2013 la zone euro ne s'est pas rapprochée de ces objectifs.

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