接触伊朗的风险

柏林——2月18日,联合国安理会五大常任理事国加德国(P5+1)与伊朗间就伊朗核计划的关键谈判在维也纳开始。谈判的替代方案是任由伊朗核问题继续发酵,进一步加码国际制裁并最终引发又一场中东战争。没有人认为这种方法能够解决问题。那么,究竟能否签署一项尊重伊朗民用核能权、同时又能缓解国际社会对核能武器化担忧的全面协议?

去年十一月在日内瓦达成临时协议,这表明西方在事实上承认了伊朗在核不扩散条约(NPT)框架内进行有限度低级铀浓缩的权利。西方解冻了约70亿美元被冻结的伊朗资金,此外还放宽了某些制裁限制(尤其是在原油和汽车零部件领域),而伊朗则同意对其核计划采取准冻结措施。虽然这项进展为最终订立持久协议打下了基础,但将这种可能性变为现实还需要经过艰苦的努力。

首先,双方需要解决相互不信任的问题。西方和以色列并不相信伊朗的核计划仅仅服务于民用目的。否则伊朗怎么会为一项几乎纯粹为军事目的服务的计划投资数十亿美元,其中还包括研制远程运输系统?

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