中东和历史的回归

柏林—自二十年前弗朗西斯·福山(Francis Fukuyama)提出世界已达到历史的终结以来,历史便让世界扼住了它的呼吸。中国崛起、巴尔干战争、2011年9月11日恐怖袭击、阿富汗和伊拉克战争、2008年全球金融危机、“阿拉伯之春”以及叙利亚内战都与福山所看到的自由民主的胜利不可阻挡的趋势背道而驰。事实上,从1989年欧洲共产主义失败到俄罗斯和西方冲突重燃,可以说历史在四分之一个世纪的时间里完成了一个完整的循环。

但在中东,历史每一天都在发挥作用,并产生最具戏剧性的结果。由一战后的奥斯曼帝国诸部组成的旧中东显然已经分崩离析,其中美国在这个冲突频发地区的行为要占很大原因。

美国的原罪是小布什总统在2003年发动的入侵伊拉克的战争。当时掌权的“新保守派”忘却了填补伊拉克和中东地区在推翻萨达姆·侯赛因后留下的权力真空的需要。奥巴马总统的撤军也操之过急,构成了美国的第二个失败。

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