墨西哥的二次革命

墨西哥城——多亏身为政党活动家的总统和决心推动国家进步的政党,近年来经济停滞、饱受暴力之困的国家​​墨西哥终于开始在2013年走出低迷境况。但在出现实质性变化的同时也不乏不确定和夸张。几乎肯定会出现这种现象。

现在的情况与20年前何其相似——几乎就是20年前的同一天。1994年1月1日墨西哥、加拿大和美国达成北美自由贸易协定(NAFTA)时,墨西哥似乎正面临着真正的腾飞。但之后发生的一系列事件——恰帕斯州爆发萨帕塔起义、总统候选人及其即将上任的首席助理被暗杀再加之货币崩溃——那一年的系列事件沉重打击了墨西哥,并凸显出这个国家所面临的挑战。

北美自由贸易协定不仅令墨西哥出口显著增加,还使出口构成发生了戏剧性的改变。但在外资流入及经济增长领域该协定的效果却令人失望。20年来墨西哥2.6%的年均增长率排在秘鲁、智利、哥伦比亚、巴西和乌拉圭之后。结果是墨西哥与美国加拿大的收入差距几乎没有缩小。

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