ثورة المكسيك الثانية

مكسيكو سيتي ــ يبدو أن المكسيك، التي كانت دولة راكدة مبتلاة بالعنف في السنوات الأخيرة، بدأت أخيراً تتغلب على وعكتها في عام 2013، وذلك بفضل رئيس ناشط وائتلاف من الأحزاب السياسية العازمة على دفع البلاد إلى الأمام. ولكن إلى جانب التغييرات الجوهرية هناك قدر كبير من الشكوك وعدم اليقين والمغالاة. ومن الصعب للغاية أن يكون الأمر مختلفا.

وهذا الوضع يشبه ما كان عليه الأمر قبل عشرين عاما ــ إلى اليوم تقريبا. عندما دخلت اتفاقية التجارة الحرة لأميركا الشمالية (نافتا) بين المكسيك وكندا والولايات المتحدة حيز التنفيذ في الأول من يناير/كانون الثاني من عام 1994، بدا الأمر وكأن المكسيك كانت مستعدة لانطلاقة حقيقية. ولكن سلسلة من الأحداث ــ انتفاضة زاباتيستا في تشياباس، واغتيال مرشح رئاسي وكبير مساعدي الرئيس القادم، وانهيار العملة ــ هزت المكسيك في ذلك العام، وأكدت على عمق التحديات التي تواجهها.

وجلبت اتفاقية التجارة الحرة لأميركا الشمالية زيادة مذهلة في الصادرات المكسيكية فضلاً عن تحول جذري في تكوينها. ولكنها أثبتت كونها خيبة أمل كبيرة في ما يتصل بتدفقات الاستثمار الأجنبي والنمو الاقتصادي، والذي بلغ في المتوسط 2.6% سنوياً على مدى العقدين الماضيين ــ وهذا أبطأ من النمو الاقتصادي في بيرو وشيلي وكولومبيا والبرازيل وأوروجواي. ونتيجة لهذا فإن فجوة الدخل بين المكسيك من جانب والولايات المتحدة وكندا على الجانب الآخر لم تصبح أضيق إلا بالكاد.

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