فخ الدعم الحكومي

كمبريدج ــ إن قِلة قليلة من السياسات قد تضع الاقتصاد الجيد على هذا النحو الشديد المباشرة في تعارض صريح مع السياسة الجيدة كما تفعل إعانات الدعم الحكومي للغذاء والطاقة. والواقع أن قضية الدعم الذي لا يمكن تحمل تكاليفه تحتل الآن مكاناً شديد البروز بين المشاكل التي تواجه ثلاثة من أكثر قادة العالم الجدد أهمية: الرئيس المصري عبد الفتاح السيسي، والرئيس الإندونيسي المنتخب الذي لم يتول منصبه بعد جوكو ويدودو (جوكوي)، ورئيس الوزراء الهندي نارندرا مودي.

الواقع أن السيسي يتعامل مع ضرورة خفض إعانات الدعم بطريقة أفضل مما كان متوقعا. وعلى النقيض من ذلك، كان أداء مودي أسوأ مما كان متوقعا ــ حتى أنه نسف اتفاق منظمة التجارة العالمية الذي كان مرتقباً لفترة طويلة. أما عن جوكوي، فلا نستطيع أن نحكم بعد.

في يوليو/تموز، أنجز السيسي ما تمكن عدد قليل من زعماء شمال أفريقيا أو الشرق الأوسط من إنجازه: فقد خفض بشكل حاد دعم الوقود الذي ظل قائماً لفترة طويلة وسمح للأسعار بالارتفاع بنسب تراوحت من 41% إلى 78%. والمدهش في الأمر أن هذا لم يسفر إلا عن بضعة احتجاجات ضئيلة.

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