Vladimir Putin rafforzerà l’Eurozona?

PARIGI – Jacek Rostowski, ministro delle Finanze polacco fino allo scorso novembre, ha recentemente suggerito quanto segue: il presidente russo Vladimir Putin non avrebbe osato annettere la Crimea se non avesse visto l’Eurozona agonizzare per una soluzione sulla crisi dell’euro. Rostowski ha ragione?

Ad un primo esame, un tale collegamento sembra azzardato. La dimostrazione di forza di Putin ha fatto leva sulle forze militari e sull’implicita minaccia di un embargo sul gas, e non sulla forza monetaria (che non ha). Durante il conflitto per la Crimea, il focus è stata la relazione dell’Ucraina con l’Unione europea, e non con l’Eurozona. Inoltre, la recente storia monetaria dell’Ucraina rivela un ancoraggio di cambio al dollaro americano, e non all’euro. Come può quindi l’euro essere rilevante per l’annessione della Crimea alla Russia?

Secondo Rostowski, durante la crisi dell’euro i Paesi europei hanno dimostrato di non essere molto propensi alla solidarietà, anche con i partner dell’unione monetaria. Quanto sarebbero solidali nei confronti di un Paese non rientrante nell’Unione europea? Il ragionamento è questo: la Russia ha interpretato l’esitazione nella gestione dei disordini da parte dell’Ue come un permesso ad agire. E potrebbe andare oltre per la stessa ragione.

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