Japans Misere ist made in Amerika

The long bureaucratic struggle over whom to name as the next Governor of the Bank of Japan is over. Prime Minister Koizumi has chosen a career BOJ insider, Toshihiko Fukui, a man who is unlikely to rock the boat. The BOJ's hidebound policies are usually blamed for Japan's deflation. That guilt is real, argues Deepak Lal, but there is another culprit: American economic policy toward Japan.

Es ist heute eine weitgehend anerkannte Tatsache, dass eine nicht beabsichtigte Folge des "asiatischen" Wirtschaftsmodells eine zunehmend ineffiziente Kapitalverteilung war. Die anhaltende Krise Japans ist ein Beispiel dafür. Künstlich niedrig gehaltene Zinssätze in den späten achtziger Jahren des vorigen Jahrhunderts förderten kapitalintensive Investitionen, wodurch der Kapitalertrag von durchschnittlich 12 % zwischen 1952 und 1973 auf weniger als 2 % im Jahr 1996 fiel.

Aufklärungsbedürftig sind allerdings noch die zeitlichen Aspekte des japanischen Booms und der anschließenden Pleite in den letzten 15 Jahren, ebenso wie die Gründe für die Dauer der anhaltenden Krise des Landes. In ihrem hervorragendem Buch Dollar and Yen liefern Ronald McKinnon und Kenici Ohno die Antwort: die Wiederkehr der endaka fukyo , einer "tiefen Yen-Rezession", die die Autoren auf ein "tiefes Yen-Syndrom" zurückführen, rührt von den anhaltenden Handelsspannungen zwischen den USA und Japan her.

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