Les États-Unis à l'origine du malaise japonais

The long bureaucratic struggle over whom to name as the next Governor of the Bank of Japan is over. Prime Minister Koizumi has chosen a career BOJ insider, Toshihiko Fukui, a man who is unlikely to rock the boat. The BOJ's hidebound policies are usually blamed for Japan's deflation. That guilt is real, argues Deepak Lal, but there is another culprit: American economic policy toward Japan.

Il est maintenant largement accepté qu'une des conséquences involontaires du modèle économique « asiatique » fut une distribution de moins en mois efficace des capitaux. Les détériorations chroniques du Japon en représentent le cas le plus clair. Les taux artificiellement bas des taux d'intérêt japonais de la fin des années 1980 encouragèrent les investissements coûteux en capitaux, faisant baisser le taux des retours d'investissements de 12 % en moyenne entre 1952 et 1973 à moins de 2 % en 1996.

Il reste toutefois à expliquer le timing du boom et de l'effondrement japonais sur les 15 dernières années, ainsi que les raisons de la durée du ralentissement continuel du pays. Dans leur excellent ouvrage, « Dollar and Yen », Ronald McKinnon et Kenici Ohno proposent des éléments de réponse : la récurrence de l' endaka fukyo , la « forte récession du yen », que les auteurs attribuent au « fort syndrome du yen » enraciné dans les frictions commerciales sans fin entre les États-Unis et le Japon.

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