Последний акт России?

ЖЕВУШ – В самом разгаре Сочинских зимних Олимпийских игр, Россия вновь находится в центре мирового внимания, и президент Владимир Путин не упускает возможности презентовать свою страну как возрождающуюся силу. Но за куражом и фанфарами - серьезные сомнения относительно будущего России. Действительно: долгосрочные тенденции цен на минеральные ресурсы, от которых зависит экономика, и история России (особенно последние два десятилетия советской власти) позволяют предположить, что Путину в скором времени перестанет везти.

У цен на минеральные ресурсы обычно есть свой цикл: начинающийся прочным ростом длиной в 8-10 лет, а потом заменяемый более длинным периодом стабильных, относительно низких цен. Учитывая, что цены росли с середины прошлого десятилетия, их спад должен начаться в течение двух лет, если он еще не начался. Кроме того, в последний раз фаза низких цен длилась 20 лет, так что Россия вряд ли сможет просто eё переждать.

Но, хоть правительство и признало необходимость урезать расходы (довольно очевидная нужда после того как $50 млрд ушли на Олимпиаду) Путин не анонсировал никаких конкретных мер, которые могли бы помочь России преодолеть экономическую слабость.

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