两个墨西哥

发自墨西哥——最近墨西哥登上了头条新闻,因为一个总体来说正面的变化。今年1月迎来了北美自由贸易协定二十周年,这份令美国与加拿大融合成为单一市场的条约使得墨西哥得以跻身制造业出口国前列。总统恩里克·佩尼亚·涅托(Enrique Peña Nieto)的改革议程已经得到了全球的关注。而且最近几个月,几大全球领先汽车和食品制造商已宣布要(在墨西哥)投资数十亿美元投资上马新设备。

事实上,在一个对新兴经济体前景日渐担忧的世界里,由于财政状况稳定,加上美国经济复苏势头增强带来的商品需求增加预期,墨西哥正面临着一次机遇。然而,墨西哥的故事还有另外一面。纵使北美自由贸易协定和其他市场开放策略带来了成功,但该国的GDP增长却相对缓慢。过去20年,墨西哥GDP年平均增长率为2.7%,低于新兴经济体的标准,也不足以在人口增长的情况下大幅提高生活水平。

墨西哥增长乏力的主要因素是生产率长期无法提高。如果墨西哥不能找到迅速刺激生产率提升的方式,普遍预测其GDP增长可能会减速至2%而不是提高至3.5%。这是因为人口老龄化出生率下降将减少进入劳动力队伍的新劳动者数量,而近几十年来超过三分之二的GDP增长都源自于此。

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