Un nuevo análisis de la crisis de la Reserva

BERKELEY – Al revisar los expedientes recién publicados de las reuniones del Comité de Operaciones de Mercado Abierto (FOMC, por sus siglas en inglés) de 2008 de la Reserva Federal estadounidense, una pregunta me surgía: ¿qué fue lo que influyó la postura miope de dicho comité mientras que la crisis le estallaba?

Sin duda, algunos entendieron la verdadera naturaleza de la situación. Como señala, Jon Hilsenrath, de The Wall Street Journal, el entonces vicepresidente ejecutivo del grupo de mercados de la Reserva de Nueva York, William Dudley, presentó estudios realizados por el equipo que de forma delicada y convincente trataban de atraer la atención del presidente de la Reserva hacia lo que era esencial. Y los miembros del FOMC, Janet Yellen, Donald Kohn, Eric Rosengren, y Frederic Mishkin, junto con la Junta de Gobernadores en Washington captaron claramente el mensaje. Sin embargo, ¿lo entendieron también los otros ocho miembros del Comité y el resto del equipo principal? No realmente (aunque de forma muy variada).

Mientras leía los expedientes, recordé la larga historia que se remonta a 1825, o antes, en la que el fracaso descontrolado de los principales bancos provocó pánico, adopción de valores de menor riesgo, colapso de los precios de los activos y depresión. Sin embargo, en el informe del FOMC de mediados de septiembre de 2008, muchos miembros se auto elogiaban de haber tenido la fortaleza de tomar la decisión incomprensible de no rescatar Lehman Brothers.

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