美国不平等性的怪异之处

伯克利—除非2014年出现意料之外的重大不利事件,否则美国实际人均GDP水平将达到或超过2007年水平。这并不是好消息。

想知道为什么,可以考察一下2007年衰退之前的两个商业周期。在这两个周期中,美国经济实际人均GDP平均每年增长2%;事实上,在大约一个世纪的时间里,美国经济的实际人均GDP都在以这个速度增长。因此,目前美国产出应该比2007年的产出水平高14%,也就是说,目前的美国产出落后了七年。此外,也找不到任何迹象表明美国经济能回到2008年金融危机爆发前的增长路径,即使接近也难以办到。唯一值得安慰的是——事实上只能说是不幸中的大幸——欧洲和日本的情况也比2007年基准糟糕得多。

因此,2014年,美国经济的年人均GDP表现将比正常水平低9,000美元。这意味着每个美国人每年在耐用消费品、度假、投资等方面少花了9,000美元。到2014年年底,危机以来人均累计浪费总额将达到约60,000美元。

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